Cepea, November 19, 2024 – The wheat harvesting is nearing the end in Brazil, but official estimates indicate that the national supply is stable. In this scenario, domestic prices oscillated less in mid-November, while international values dropped sharply.
According to data from Cepea, between November 8 and 14, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) decreased 0.28% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.37% in Santa Catarina, but upped 0.36% in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations rose 0.38% São Paulo, 0.09% in Rio Grande do Sul and 0.57% in Santa Catarina; but moved down 0.18% in Paraná.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND – Conab released data indicating that the wheat area in Brazil is at 3.07 million hectares, 11.6% smaller than in 2023. Productivity is expected to rise 13.3% in Brazil, while the supply may be at 8.1 million tons (+0.1% against last year). The supply in the South is expected to increase by 2.9%, influenced the higher production in Santa Catarina and in Rio Grande do Sul, with decreases in other producing states in Brazil.
CROPS – In Paraná, there are only 2% of the area left to be harvested, according to data from Seab/Deral. In Rio Grande do Sul, Emater/RS says that the harvesting hit 83% of the total until Nov. 14.
IMPORTS – Acquisitions totaled 552.4 thousand tons in October, the highest volume for the month in five years. In the partial of this year, the total is at 5.7 million tons, the highest for the period since 2013 – data from Secex.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
