Cepea, July 16, 2025 – The harvesting of the second crop, which can be a record, has been progressing, especially in the Central-West. In this scenario, purchasers continue away from closing trades in the spot market, expecting new price drops. The demand from abroad, in turn, is also low, reinforcing decreases in Brazil. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved down 6.33% between June 30 and July 15, closing at BRL 62.78 per 60-kilo bag on July 15.
Conab indicates that the 2024/25 second corn crop may amount 104.53 million tons, upping 16% compared to the previous season and a record in the Conab series (since 1976/77). As for the first crop, the estimate is at 24.91 million tons, 8.5% up compared to the season before. The third crop, in turn, is forecast at 2.51 million tons (+1.4%).
As a whole, Conab projects the 2024/25 output at 131.97 million tons, upping 14.3% compared to the season before and the highest in history. As for the consumption, Conab estimates 89.75 million tons, boosted by the growing production of corn ethanol.
SHIPMENTS – At ports, both trades and exports are moving at a slow pace. In the four first working days of July, Brazil shipped only 120.72 thousand tons of corn, with a daily pace that is 80% smaller than in July last year, according to data from Secex.
CROPS – Up to July 5, the second crop harvesting reached 27.7% in Brazil, upping 10.7 percentage points in one week, but still 11.8 p.p. below that verified in the average over the last five years – data from Conab. Concerning the summer crop, the harvesting reached 97.2% of the area, more than the 96.5% in the average over the last five years (Conab data).
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
