Cepea, July 16, 2025 – While the global crop continues to move at a good pace, with expectations of a new record in 2025/26, the output in Brazil is likely to shrink, which, in turn, will require an increase of imports between August 2025 and July 2026. Even in this scenario, quotations moved down in Brazil in early July, influenced by decreases abroad and of dollar values.
According to a report from Conab released on July 10, the national output is estimated at 7.81 million tons, 4.6% smaller than the report released in June and downing 0.9% against the season before (7.89 million tons). The area may drop 16.5%, to 2.55 million hectares, but the productivity is expected to grow 18.7% compared to the past crop, at 3.06 tons per hectare.
Conab also says that 79.5% of the area had been planted up to July 5.
GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND – Data from the USDA indicate a certain stability in the world production compared to data released in June, at 808.55 million tons, but still a record. The consumption, in turn, rose 0.1%, at 810.62 million tons. As a result, ending stocks would be reduced to 261.52 million tons, equivalent to 32.4% of the world consumption, and the smallest relation since the 2014/15 season.
DOMESTIC MARKET – According to data from Cepea, between July 4 and 11, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values dropped 0.95% in Rio Grande do Sul, 1.28% in Santa Catarina and 1.21% in Paraná. In São Paulo, quotations rose 2.4%. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) moved down 0.3% in Santa Catarina, 0.32% in Paraná and 0.37% in Rio Grande do Sul.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
