Cepea, July 16, 2025 – Although the demand for white crystal sugar continues low in the spot market of São Paulo state, prices were stable in early July. This is related to the fact that players from mills were firm regarding quotations and to the increase of values abroad.
The National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved the increase of the mandatory blend of ethanol into gasoline, changing from 27% to 30%, starting on August 1st, 2025. The increase in the demand for ethanol is expected to direct more sugarcane to produce the biofuel, which, in turn, can boost sugar quotations.
From July 7-11, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for sugar (Icumsa 130-180) averaged BRL 116.32 per 50-kg bag, downing only 0.12% compared to that in the previous period (BRL 116.46/bag from June 30 to July 4). In the first fortnight of July, the Index rose 0.61%.
Demerara sugar quotations rose in the same period at ICE Futures, influenced by the oil valuation. Moreover, data from the output in the Central-Southern area in Brazil reinforced increases abroad. According to data from Unica, in the partial of the 2025/26 season (between April 1st, 2025, and June 16th, 2025), Brazil produced 9.404 million tons of sugar, 14.63% less than in the same period last crop.
From July 7-11, Cepea calculations show that the weekly average of the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for white crystal sugar closed at BRL 116.32 per 50-kilo bag, while the average of the October/25 contract at ICE Futures closed at 115.33 BRL per bag. Thus, sales in the spot market of SP remunerated 0.86% more than exports did. This figure considered weekly averages at USD 63.46 per ton of freight and charges, USD 93.39 per ton for quality premium and dollar at BRL 5.4918.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
