Cepea, October 16, 2024 – In spite of concerns related to low productivity, the progress of the harvesting in Southern Brazil pressed down wheat quotations in mid-October. Sellers were starting to sell off stocks of 2023 and many of them were flexible regarding prices. Purchasers, in turn, were waiting for the higher supply from the new wheat season, expecting lower values as a result.
Abroad, prices moved up, influenced by low soil moist, which concerns players about the progress of the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere. In Argentina, unfavorable weather conditions may affect the productive potential, and estimates have already been readjusted.
According to data from Cepea, between October 4 and 11, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) rose 0.15% in Santa Catarina, 0.18% in Paraná and 0.12% in Rio Grande do Sul. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), quotations dropped 0.58% in Paraná, 1.3% in Rio Grande do Sul and 3.8% in Santa Catarina; however, they moved up 1.8% in São Paulo. Dollar quotations increased 3% against Real in the same period, at BRL 5.623 on October 11.
CROPS – The harvesting has started in Rio Grande do Sul, reaching 2% of the area, while other 30% of crops are in ripening stage – data from Emater/RS. In Paraná, 73% of the area had been harvested, with 62% of crops still on the field in ripening stage, according to information from Seab/Deral.
The USDA released a report on Oct. 11 indicating that the 2024/25 global supply is estimated at 794.08 million tons. The world consumption may total 802.54 million tons. As for Brazil, the USDA indicates a 5.3% decrease in production, to 9 million tons in 2024/25, but still 11% higher than in the 2023/24 season. As the consumption is stable, the imported volume is likely to total 5.9 million tons.
Total imports of wheat amounted 592.13 thousand tons in September, the highest volume for the month since 2016 (Secex data). In the partial of this year (from January to September), Brazil purchased 5.148 million tons of wheat, 23% more than in the entire year of 2023.
(Cepea-Brazil)
