Cepea, November 19, 2024 – Arabica coffee quotations increased sharply in early November. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, rose 18.38% in the partial of the month (up to Nov. 18), closing at BRL 1,805.68/60-kg bag on Nov. 18, the highest since February 27, 1998, in real terms (IGP-DI October/24).
Values were above BRL 1,500/bag during most part of the first fortnight of November, upping more significantly at the end of the period. High dollar values against Real, limited stocks and uncertainties regarding the productive potential of the 2025/26 season in Brazil boosted prices.
It is worth noting that the conditions for the 2025/26 season can only be sized more precisely by the end of the summer in Brazil (March/25), when coffee beans will be at the end of the filling stage – the harvesting is expected for mid-2025.
Despite the rainfall, the soil moist is still low in many producing regions, and more rains are needed to mitigate the current scenario for the coming season. For the time being, the return of rains has favored flowers, which is a good sign. However, the abundance of flowers does not guarantee a good production. Uncertainties like that concern producers, who fear a more significant crop failure in the coming season.
ROBUSTA – The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta type 6, screen 13, Espírito Santo, closed at BRL 1,570.79/bag on November 18, for an increase of 8.27% compared to that on October 31.
The rainfall has been favoring the development of the crops. However, if temperatures had not been that high this year and the winter not that dry, crops would be in better shape for the 2025/26 season, according to players surveyed by Cepea.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
