Cepea, November 19, 2024 – The fact that sellers are away from closing deals sustained the upward trend for corn prices in Brazil in mid-November. Players were focused on crop activities, limiting the supply in the spot market. Moreover, they expect new price rises between late 2024 and the beginning of 2025.
However, increases were limited in the middle of the month by the fact that some purchasers were unwilling to trade. More favorable weather conditions, the slow pace of exports and decreases of international contracts led purchasers to expect price drops in the domestic market. Moreover, projections for the 2024/25 season indicate an increase of the production, which can encourage sellers to trade.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) moved up 2.36% between October 31 and November 18, closing at BRL 74.66 per 60-kilo bag on Nov. 18.
PORTS – Brazilian shipments totaled 1.7 million tons of corn in the first six producing days of November, accounting for 23% of the total volume exported in the same month last year – data from Secex. The daily pace is also 23% below that verified in November/23. Anec estimates that sales to the international market are likely to hit 5.38 million tons in November.
Conab estimates that the 2024/25 total corn production may total 119.81 million tons, 3.6% more than in 2023/24.
The summer crop is likely to hit 22.79 million tons, 0.7% smaller than in 2023/24. The second crop, in turn, is projected by Conab at 94.63 million tons, 4.8% up in the same comparison. As for the third crop, the production can decrease 3.8%, at 2.38 million tons.
CROPS – Until November 10, the 2024/25 summer crop planting had reached 48.7% of the area in Brazil, 1.9 percentage point more than in the same period last year – data from Conab.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
