Cepea, November 19, 2024 – Although the 2024/25 soybean season has started with unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil, the recent rainfall along with sunny days have been favoring crops activities, which are more advanced now than in the same period last crop.
This scenario (which sustains expectations of a possible record crop in Brazil) has led purchasers to be away from closing deals in the spot market. Producers are also unwilling to trade, focused on dollar valuations and projections of an increase in the global soy production. As a result, liquidity is low.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) decreased 1.17% from October 31 to November 18, closing at BRL 142.21 per 60-kg bag on Nov. 18. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) dropped 0.91% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 139.85 per 60-kg bag.
Crops activities continued to move at a good pace in mid-November. The area is expected to hit the record of 47.36 million hectares. From this total, 66.1% had been planted by November 10 – Conab data.
The production is expected to total 166.14 million tons (Conab) or 169 million tons (USDA).
EXPORTS – Brazil shipped 4.7 million tons of soybean in October, 22.87% less than in September/24 and 15.9% smaller compared to October/23. Moreover, it is the lowest volume this year – data from Secex. From January to October/24, on the other hand, exports totaled 94.25 million tons, 1.5% more than in the same period last year and a record.
Soybean meal shipments rose 32.3% from September to October, totaling 2.31 million tons, the biggest amount since March/24. As for soy oil, the volume upped 16.5% in the same comparison, at 94.67 thousand tons in October (data from Secex).
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP