Cepea, December 3, 2024 – Cotton prices rose in November, due to the fact that sellers were firm regarding quotations and that some purchasers were willing to pay higher values at the end of the month, especially for high-quality batches. Moreover, international increases reinforced the upward trend in Brazil.
Players were focused on delivering term contracts to both domestic and international markets, due to the nearness of the end of the year. However, some of them were still closing new trades to meet immediate needs.
Between October 31 and November 29, the CEPEA/ESALQ cotton Index (payment in 8 days) rose 3.35%, to close at BRL 4.0654 per pound on Nov. 29.
EXPORTS – Brazil shipped 215.4 thousand tons of cotton in 14 producing days November, 15.1% less than in November/23 (253.7 thousand tons). However, the daily average of exports is at 15.4 thousand tons, 21.3% up in relation to the 12.7 thousand tons verified in the same month last year. Thus, if this pace continues, the total shipped may hit 292.3 thousand tons, the highest volume since December/23 (350.8 thousand tons).
Conab indicates that the cotton production is likely to increase 1.06%, at the record of 3.704 million tons in the 2024/25 season, upping 0.1% in relation to the 2023/24 crop. The area may total 2.008 million hectares, increasing 0.32% in the monthly comparison and 3.3% against 2023/24. Productivity, in turn, may move down 3.1% compared to the season before, but rising 0.73% in relation to data released in October/24, at 1,845 kilos per hectare.
The consumption is projected at 710 thousand tons by Conab, upping 1.43% compared to October/24 and 2.16% in relation to 2023/24. Exports are likely to rise 2.45% and 2.73% in the same comparisons, at 2.93 million tons in 2024/25.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
