Cepea, January 6, 2025 – Corn supply decreased in Brazil in 2024. The production for both first and second crops reduced, increasing in the third season (North and Northeastern regions). The unfavorable weather affected the productivity, limiting the availability. On the other hand, the global supply in the 2023/24 crop increased, due to the higher volumes harvested in the United States, China, the European Union, Argentina and Ukraine.
In Brazil, corn prices moved down in the first semester, registering the lowest levels of the year in July. The pressure came from the summer crop harvesting, the good development of the second crop and estimates of record global production.
The lower volume of rainfall, however, reduced the production, which, along with the higher exchange rate, boosted values in the second semester.
More rains from the second fortnight of October on favored sowing activities of the summer crop, reducing or even eliminating players’ concerns.
2024 was the third year of consecutive price drops, in nominal terms. With decrease in values and supply, 2024 was not positive to corn sellers in Brazil; this scenario may have favored consumers.
In total, the production of the 2023/24 crop was at 115.7 million tons in Brazil, 12.3% below than that in the 2022/23 season. The surplus totaled 40.42 million tons, 19% inferior than that in the previous crop and the lowest volume since 2021/22, according to Conab. With the lower surplus, Brazilian exports also decreased.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
