Year registers records and sharp price oscillations

Cepea, January 6, 2025 –

CATTLE – The last year was characterized by records of slaughter, production, domestic supply and exports. Moreover, 2024 registered sharp price fluctuations.

In the first semester, fed cattle quotations were in a downward trend, and the CEPEA/B3 Index (São Paulo State) closed at BRL 215.30 in early June, the lowest level of the year. In that period, pastures were in bad shape, and many cattle farmers increased their sales to reduce costs and limit the weight loss. IBGE indicates that the number of animals slaughtered rose 21.2% in the first semester against the same period in 2023.

Meanwhile, exports were moving at a good pace, at around 250 thousand tons per month. It was a good moment for meatpackers, but bad for farmers.

In August, the cattle raisers’ situation started to change. Meatpackers began to demand new batches of animals to slaughter, offering high prices as days gone by. This context resulted in a sharp upward trend, influencing values for lean cattle and calf as well.

As for beef, the domestic demand increased and exports were significant, influenced by high dollar quotations. Up to November, Brazilian shipments of beef had totaled 2.65 million tons (in natura and processed), surpassing by 28.7% the volume verified in the same period of 2023 and renewing the record.

In late November, however, meatpackers reduced the pace of deals, and values started to move down in the domestic market. In the first fortnight of December alone, the decrease of fed cattle prices was at 11%.

SWINE – As expected by the Brazilian swine sector, the demand from abroad remained firm in 2024, with exports of pork meat reaching new records.

In the domestic market, the performance was also positive. Values of live pig and pork meat hit nominal maximum levels of Cepea series. This scenario and the devaluation of most important inputs used in the swine sector (soybean meal and corn) boosted producers’ margins.

POULTRY – 2024 was a challenging year, but it was positive for the poultry sector in Brazil. High prices for chicken meat and live animals, which were in turn influenced by the limited supply and the firm demand, favored this scenario. Moreover, price drops of inputs used in the activity reinforced the positive scenario for the poultry sector.

The increase of H5N1 (Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza) cases in many countries was one of the several challenges faced by the sector. In Brazil, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, floods between late April and early May and the confirmation of the Newcastle disease in Vale do Taquari (RS) were among the difficulties faced by players – it is worth noting that the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) declared the end of the disease by late October.

As for the supply, data from IBGE indicate that 10.2 million tons of chicken meat were produced from January to September in Brazil, upping 1.5% compared to the same period in 2023.

Chicken meat has regained competitiveness against beef in 2024, especially in the second semester, which is related to higher prices of beef (due to the limited supply of fed cattle to slaughter).

(Cepea-Brazil)