Cepea, January 16, 2025 – This year starts with distinct scenarios in both domestic and international corn markets. In Brazil, prices are above those verified at the beginning of 2024, but the futures market indicates lower quotations compared to the current ones. At CME Group, in turn, contracts are lower in relation to those registered in early 2024 and there are no signs of recovery in 2025.
In the domestic context, lower future values are related to the expectation of higher production in 2025 against 2024. As for international prices, there is a certain balance between supply and demand in the United States, but the US surplus is high, which requires exports to be firm in a scenario of political uncertainties (due to the new government).
BRAZIL – The upward trend for corn prices in the second semester of 2024 in major producing areas in Brazil may attract producers and increase the planting of the second crop in 2025. As the sowing of summer crops (such as soybean) is faster, the second corn crop is expected to be planted in the ideal period.
The possible higher production is followed by estimates indicating a record domestic consumption, especially from the animal feeding sector and the growing industry of corn ethanol in Brazil. A possible balance between supply and demand may come from a decrease in exports – they can be limited by the smaller domestic surplus.
Taking into account initial stocks at 4.422 million tons (by February/25), total production at 119.6 million tons and imports at 1.9 million tons, the domestic availability is forecast at 125.9 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Disregarding the domestic consumption (87.03 million tons), the domestic surplus is at 38.9 million tons, the smallest since 2020/21 (34.33 million tons) – data from Conab. Exports, in turn, are estimated by Conab at 34 million tons between February/25 and January/26.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
