Cepea, January 16, 2025 – Players in Brazil are focused on both quality and productivity of the sugarcane in the next 2025/26 season, which officially starts in April 2025. It is worth noting that crops were affected by unfavorable weather conditions (warm and dry weather) in 2024 and by wildfires in August this year in the Central-South, especially in São Paulo.
Consulting companies and other institutions indicate concerns about the weather and wildfires, especially their impacts on the development of crops that will be harvested between April and July.
It is worth noting that the cane crushing in the Central-South is already lower in the 2025/26 season and may be below initial forecasts. Processing activities are likely to reach between 581 and 620 million tons, decreasing compared to that observed in the past crop. Canaplan indicates an even smaller range, from 566 to 577 million tons.
As for investments, expectations are positive. New companies may enter the market, especially in producing units in the Central-West.
The Fuel of the Future Law is likely to begin in 2025, indicating that the blend of ethanol into gasoline may change from the current 27.5% up to 35%.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
