Cepea, January 16, 2025 – The 2024/25 crop in Brazil started with concerns about the low volume of rains, but the favorable weather in the coming months may lead to a record soybean production.
As for the demand, national policies that encourage a higher blend of biodiesel into diesel oil may favor the demand for soybeans to process. In the international scenario, the sharp dollar valuation against Real leads the Brazilian product to be more attractive to international purchasers, which tends to favor exports.
Regarding prices, trades in US dollar to ship at Brazilian ports in the first semester of 2025 have been closed at lower quotations compared to those verified one year ago, and international values are also operating at lower levels.
In general, the market may also be focused on actions of the new government in the US, especially those concerning tariffs of imports, which can result in reactions of other countries and allocate purchasers to South America. However, in Argentina, the government indicated the possibility to reduce “retenciones” on agricultural products in 2025, which can encourage exports and boost the competition for soybean meal with Brazil, for instance.
The USDA projects that the Brazilian output may total the record of 169 million tons (40% of the global crop), while Conab estimates 166.2 million tons.
The USDA indicates that Brazil is expected to supply the global market with 105.5 million tons of soybean in the 2024/25 crop (+1.3% in relation to the previous season).
Among countries that process soybeans, the USDA indicates a smaller volume only for Brazil (-1.3%, at 54 million tons). Abiove (Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries), in turn, expects an increase of national crushing activities, at 57 million tons in 2025.
It is worth noting that the domestic consumption of soybean oil in Brazil is likely to reach the record of 9.53 million tons, being 5.3 million tons for the industry and 4.23 million tons allocated for food.
Regarding the soybean meal, the global consumption is estimated at 266.6 million tons. In Brazil, 21 million tons of soy meal may be consumed (+5%) and 20.5 million tons are likely to be shipped (-9.8%), according to data from the USDA.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
