Cepea, February 4, 2025 – The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica coffee type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, averaged BRL 2,332.87 per 60-kg bag in January, the highest of Cepea series (which has started in September 1996) – values were deflated by IGP-DI December/24. Compared to December last year, the average this month rose 8.26% (or 177.98 Reais/bag). Despite high price levels, trades moved at a slow pace at the end of January, since producers had only a few batches available. Moreover, the daily Index also hit the record of the series, in real terms, at BRL 2,565.85 per 60-kg bag on February 3.
As for robusta, daily values have been above the historical level of BRL 2,000 per 60 kg bag. In January, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta type 6, screen 13, Espírito Santo, averaged BRL 1,977.68/bag, a real monthly record, and 10,77% (or 192.28 Reais/bag) up compared to that in the last month of 2024.
Prices for arábica and robusta continue to move up due to the limited supply of coffee in Brazil and in the world and to the high percentage of coffee already traded in the domestic market. Players surveyed by Cepea say that a high amount of arabica coffee was traded when values surpassed BRL 1,500/bag, and that between 70% and 80% of the 2024/25 season had been traded in many regions. As for robusta, from 80% to 90% of the total had been traded. Thus, there is only a small amount left to be traded at prices higher than BRL 2,000/bag.
As for the 2025/26 production in Brazil, crops are at the stage of grain filling. Although rains had been favorable in January, the recent high temperatures concerned producers in some states, as in Espírito Santo, in part of the south of Minas Gerais and in Rondônia.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
