Low stocks keep prices high; Index is close to BRL 90/bag

Cepea, March 17, 2025 – In mid-March, while corn inventories were low, the demand was high. This scenario kept quotations in an upward trend in most areas surveyed by Cepea in the period. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) is close to BRL 90.00 per 60-kilo bag, a level that was observed for the last time in April 2022.

Initial stocks of the 2024/25 season are at only 2.04 million tons, less than the 2.1 million tons estimated in February/25 and lower than the 7.2 million tons registered in 2023/24. The current level accounts for only 2.4% of the annual consumption in the domestic market, projected by Conab at 86.97 million tons in 2024/25.

In the spot market, purchasers were willing to trade, but sellers were asking for high prices. Moreover, there were logistics issues.        

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) increased 2.67% between February 28 and March 14, closing at BRL 89.83 per 60-kilo bag on March 14.

The report released by Conab on March 13 indicated a slight increase of 0.6% for the Brazilian output compared to what had been released in February, now estimated at 122.76 million tons, upping 6.1% in relation to the season before.

The summer crop is expected to total 24.85 million tons, while the third is projected at 2.38 million tons. As for the second crop, the area may increase 2%, and productivity, 4% against the season before. As a result, the production is likely to reach 95.51 million tons, 6% more than the past crop.

Due to the production increase and the reduction of shipments, estimated at 34 million tons, below the 38.5 million tons verified in the crop before, final stocks are likely to total 5.53 million tons, more than the 4.89 million tons projected in February.

The USDA kept the production estimate in Brazil at 126 million tons, but it reduced exports to 41 million tons.

The global production is likely to total 1.21 billion tons, according to the USDA. The consumption was kept at 1.23 billion tons, but stocks by the end of the season dropped. Thus, the stock/consumption relation in the 2024/25 crop is at 23.4%, below that verified in 2023/24 (25.7%).

EXPORTS – Brazilian corn shipments totaled 446.94 thousand tons in the first three producing days of this month, surpassing the 427.30 thousand tons exported in the entire month of March 2024.

(Cepea-Brazil)