Cepea, March 17, 2025 – The soy harvest continued to move at a good pace in important producing areas in Brazil in mid-March. The productivity was high in many regions, which reinforces the estimate of a record output. Since the supply was increasing, purchasers were willing to trade and deals for immediate delivery were moving at a good pace.
However, players fear impacts of infrastructure problems on liquidity in the coming weeks. The flowing of soy and corn in this time of the year highlights all logistics problems faced by producers.
According to data from Conab released in March, the soy production is expected to increase in important regions in 2024/25, except in Rio Grande do Sul, where Conab points to 17.06 million tons, 13.2% less than in the season before, due to the irregular volume of rainfall in the state.
The national soy production is likely to amount 167.37 million tons, 0.8% more than the projection released in February and 13.3% above that verified in the 2023/24 season – from this amount, 56.3% had been harvested up to March 9, according to Conab.
The USDA, in turn, is more optimistic, keeping the projection at 169 million tons for the 2024/25 season in Brazil. The Department says that 105.5 million tons of soybean may be shipped in this season (from October/24 to September/25), a record. However, in the partial of this season (from Oct/24 to Feb/25), Brazilian exports are 30.4% lower than those verified in the same period last crop, according to Secex. As for the global production, the USDA estimates the record of 420.76 million tons in 2024/25.
PRICES – The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped only 0.04% from February 28 to March 14, to close at BRL 134.36 per 60-kg bag on March 14. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) upped slightly 0.07% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 128.04 per 60-kg bag on March 14.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
