Cepea, April 2, 2025 – Prices of both arábica and robusta coffee increased consecutively for practically four months and hit records in Brazil, in real terms. However, they dropped in March.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for arabica type 6, delivered to São Paulo city, averaged BRL 2,547.71 per 60-kg bag in March, for a decrease of 3.16% (or roughly 80 Reais/bag) compared to that in February. As for robusta, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for the robusta type 6, screen 13, Espírito Santo, averaged BRL 2,003.02 per 60-kg bag in the month, downing 2.3% (or 47.07 Reais/bag) in relation to the previous period.
Coffee prices oscillated significantly in March. In the last week of the month, specifically, despite the rainfall in producing areas, arabica values rose, influenced by the dollar valuation against Real – the Index hit BRL 2,609.91/bag on March 25. However, on March 28, it closed at BRL 2,510.47/bag and registered again a slight increase on March 31.
In general, this scenario indicates that the market waits for a more precise indication about the volume of the next 2025/26 season in Brazil. The upward trend might seem to be interrupted in mid-March, when the rainfall returned and temperatures decreased a little, especially in areas where arabica coffee is produced.
Concerning robusta, players surveyed by Cepea say that the low volume of rains and the warm weather in Espírito Santo between January and mid-March could affect the production, even that most crops are irrigated. Now, in April, some producers are likely to start harvesting, in an attempt to prevent losses.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
