Demand is low, and prices drop in many regions

Cepea, April 16, 2025 – After hitting BRL 90.00 per 60-kg bag in mid-March, corn prices started to decrease between late March and early April, a trend that was verified in most areas surveyed by Cepea.

Price drops are related to the low demand. Consumers have inventories and are focused on the first crop harvesting; therefore, they were away from closing trades in mid-April, expecting more price decreases. Sellers, in turn, were willing to trade in the spot market, fearing quotations can move down even more. Other part of sellers, however, were still limiting the supply.

The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 3.42% between March 31 and April 15, closing at BRL 84.71 per 60-kilo bag on April 15.

Quotations registered a slight recovery in the middle of the month because of the fact that some purchasers were willing to trade. However, this scenario was not enough to boost prices.

Conab released a report indicating that the 2024/25 season may increase by 8% compared to the previous, at 124.74 million tons. The first and the second crops are likely to grow 6.5% and 8.5%, respectively, compared to 2023/24, at 24.46 and 97.89 million tons, while the third crop is expected to decrease 3.8%, at 2.38 million tons.

The domestic demand may increase 4%, at 87 million tons, leading sales to the international market to reduce by 4.5 million tons, at 34 million tons. Thus, ending stocks may total 7.39 million tons by January/26.

In global terms, the USDA indicates that stocks changed from 288.94 million tons in March to 287.65 million tons this month, downing 8% compared to the 2023/24 crop. The world production is estimated at 1.22 billion tons, and the consumption, at 1.24 billion tons. The stock/consumption relation in 2024/25 may be 23.3%, below the average over the last five years (26.4%).

CROPS – Conab indicates that second crop sowing activities reached 99.1% of the area until April 5. The summer crop harvesting had totaled 59.2% of the area in Brazil up to April 5, more than the average over the last five years (2020-2024), of 54.8% – data from Conab.

(Cepea-Brazil)