Cepea, April 16, 2025 – The proximity of holidays in Brazil this month (April 18th and 21st) has resulted in trades involving larger batches of ethanol from April 7-11. However, the total amount was still below the expected by agents.
The high liquidity was limited by the fact that most purchasers were more resistant in closing deals, since they are focused on recent oil price drops, which can press down gasoline quotations.
As for sellers, some mills continue to trade 2024/25 stocks, while players from other units remain firm about prices.
Between April 7 and 11, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for hydrous ethanol closed at BRL 2.7460/liter (net of ICMS and PIS/Cofins), moving up 0.23% compared to that in the previous period. As for anhydrous ethanol, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index closed at BRL 3.0809/liter, net of taxes (PIS/Cofins), 2.48% less than that in the week before.
Data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) show that in São Paulo, between April 6 and 12, ethanol quotes averaged 4.12 BRL per liter, amounting for 67.1% of gasoline prices (6.14 BRL per liter).
TRUMP’S TARIFFS – Tariffs imposed by the US government have brought uncertainties to the ethanol market, especially about the impacts on prices – the tariff, which was at 2.5%, would change to 10%. Ethanol trades between Brazil and the United States were free from import taxes between 2011 and 2017. The North-Americans import a small amount of the ethanol produced in Brazil.
According to data from Secex, the total volume of the Brazilian ethanol exported in the 2024/25 season (from April/24 to March/25) totaled 1.806 billion liters (anhydrous and hydrous). To the US market alone, the amount was at 311.4 million liters. In the same period, sales to countries such as South Korea, for instance, totaled 778 million liters.
The Central-Southern area in Brazil hit a new record in the 2024/25 season and produced 34.96 billion liters, upping 4.06% compared to that in the crop before.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
