Cepea, May 19, 2025 – The new crop estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in May indicates that the orange production in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro and in the southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to total 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes in 2025/26, a sharp rise of 36.2% compared to the crop before. This increase brings a relief for the sector, especially because of the current scenario of limited orange juice stocks. By July/25, the volume in stock would be below the level that is considered strategic.
In case processing activities follow the harvesting increase at the same proportion, inventories by July 2026 are likely to be close to a safer volume to supply the global market. As a result, prices paid to producers, which hit records in the crop before (especially in October 2024), may not remain at the same levels. Thus, quotations are likely to continue above the historical average.
Among the aspects that justify the increase of the production estimate are the higher number of producing trees and the improvement of the weather during the cycle. Fundecitrus says that the number of producing trees upped 7.5% compared to the previous season, changing from 169.9 million to 182.7 million trees.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
