Cepea, May 19, 2025 – The productivity of the current soybean crop is satisfactory in important producing regions, keeping the domestic supply high – projections indicate area increases in the coming season. As for the demand, the trade truce between the United States and China may limit the increase of Brazilian soybean exports.
This scenario kept prices low in Brazil in early May. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) dropped 0.3% from April 30 to May 15, closing at BRL 131.74 per 60-kg bag on May 15. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) decreased 0.22% in the same comparison, at BRL 127.51 per 60-kg bag.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND – The USDA released a report on May 12 indicating that the global soy production is likely to change from 420.87 million tons in the 2024/25 season to the new record of 426.82 million tons in 2025/26.
In Brazil, the 2025/26 output may hit the new record of 175 million tons, 3.6% more than the 169 million tons indicated for 2024/25 – this volume is close to that projected by Conab, of 168.3 million tons in the current crop.
BYPRODUCTS – As for the soybean meal, the world production may hit the record of 287.63 million tons in 2025/26, 3.4% more than in 2024/25. Concerning soy oil, the output is likely to total 70.77 million tons, upping 3.21% compared to 2024/25.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
