Cepea, June 3, 2025 – The increase of the crystal sugar supply in the spot market of São Paulo state in May, especially of Icumsa 180, and the low demand pressed down quotations last month.
In the last week of May, liquidity was low, and purchasers were unwilling to close additional deals. Prices oscillated according to the sugar type, being firm for Icumsa 150 and low for Icumsa 180.
In May, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Icumsa 130-180) averaged BRL 137.50 per 50-kg bag, 3.4% less than in April/25 (BRL 142.35/bag). In the accumulated of the month, the Index dropped 7.2%, to close at BRL 133.59/bag on May 30.
Abroad, demerara sugar values dropped in late May and operated at the lowest levels in more than three years. The decrease is explained by USDA forecasts indicating a global surplus of 11.4 million tons in 2025/26. The output is projected at 189.3 million tons, for an increase of 4.73% compared to the crop before, while the demand is expected to increase only 1.4%, at 177.9 million tons.
As for Brazil, the USDA estimates the record production of 44.7 million tons, with higher productivity, favored by the weather.
From May 26-30, Cepea calculations show that the weekly average of the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for white crystal sugar closed at BRL 134.53 per 50-kilo bag, while the average of the July/25 contract at ICE Futures closed at 122.68 BRL per bag. Thus, sales in the spot market of SP remunerated 9.66% more than exports did. This figure considered weekly averages at USD 60.67 per ton of freight and charges, USD 86.71 per ton for quality premium and dollar at BRL 5.6806.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
