High supply boosts volume traded in May, but prices drop

Cepea, June 3, 2025 – Sales of hydrous ethanol increased in May in the spot market of São Paulo state, especially in the first fortnight of the month, when purchasers replenished inventories after trades closed for Mother’s Day.

Data from Cepea indicate that the volume of hydrous ethanol sold by mills in São Paulo in May was 21% higher than in April. However, compared to May/24, the amount dropped 22.4%.

In spite of the higher volume of trades, prices moved down in May because of the increase of the ethanol supply, since the cane crop has been progressing in the Central-South. Concerning anhydrous ethanol, quotations also decreased, but less significantly.

In May, the average of the monthly CEPEA/ESALQ Index for hydrous ethanol was at BRL 2.6882/liter, downing 1.18% compared to April. As for anhydrous ethanol (sales in the spot market + contracts), the average of the monthly Index closed at BRL 3.0657/liter, dropping 0.53% in the same comparison.

Current monthly Indexes of hydrous and anhydrous ethanol are higher than those in May last year, when they were at BRL 2.4977/liter and at BRL 2.8410/liter, respectively, in real terms (IGP-M May).

MARKET IN LATE MAY – Hydrous ethanol prices dropped more significantly in the last week of May, due to the increase of supply. The rainfall in some areas in São Paulo, Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul interrupted activities at the industry, but there was no impact on values.

Between May 26 and 30, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for hydrous ethanol closed at BRL 2.6100/liter (net of ICMS and PIS/Cofins), for a decrease of 2.83% compared to that in the previous period – it is the most significant drop of the 2025/26 season. As for the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for anhydrous closed at BRL 3.0564/liter, net of taxes (PIS/Cofins), 1.62% smaller in the same comparison.

Data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) show that in São Paulo, between May 25 and 31, ethanol quotes averaged 4.07 BRL per liter, amounting for 66.3% of gasoline prices (6.14 BRL per liter).

(Cepea-Brazil)