Cepea, June 17, 2025 – Despite the high supply, soybean prices were firm in the domestic market in early June, sustained by the good demand from abroad. Values for soybean meal and oil, on the other hand, were decreasing. This scenario has reduced the margin of the crushing industry.
Concerning soy oil, prices were moving down because of the low demand, especially from the biodiesel sector. Earlier this year, the crushing industry was waiting for a demand increase, based on the possible adjustment in the blend of biodiesel into diesel oil, from 14% to 15%. However, the blend continued at 14%, discouraging soy oil trades.
Due to the low demand for soy byproducts, Conab reduced the crushing estimate in Brazil by 1.6% compared to the previous report. Still, processing activities may reach the record of 56.15 million tons this season.
Soy oil trades are projected by Conab at 9.69 million tons, 2.7% less than that released in the previous report. Exports, in turn, may total 1.4 million tons (soy oil) and 23.6 million tons (soy meal).
SOYBEAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND – Because of the high productivity in Brazil, Conab readjust the 2024/25 output to 169.6 million tons, 0.75% more than that estimated in May and a record. The volume forecast by Conab is similar to the 169 million tons projected by the USDA
Brazil may produce more than 40% of the 2024/25 global season, estimated by the USDA at 420.77 million tons. As for the 2025/26 crop, Brazil is likely to be responsible for 41% of the world season, forecast at 426.8 million tons.
Concerning the output in Argentina, the USDA estimates 49 million tons in 2024/25, slightly below the 50.3 million tons indicated by Bolsa de Cereales.
As for the demand, the USDA estimates that China may import 108 million tons in 2024/25 (from October/24 to September/25), less than the 112 million tons purchased in the season before. In the 2025/26 crop, China is expected to import 112 million tons.
Brazil is likely to continue as the leader in soybean exports, changing from 104.5 million tons in 2024/25 (from October/24 to September/25) to 112 million in the next season.
EXPORTS – In May, Brazil shipped 14.09 million tons, 4.9% more than one year ago, but 7.7% below that in April/25, according to data from Secex. In the partial of this year (up to May), exports hit the record of 51.52 million tons, 2.7% above that verified in the same period last year.
As for soybean meal exports, in May, the volume was the highest since August 2023, at 2.36 million tons, upping 11.2% compared to April/25 and 12.4% in relation to May/24 – data from Secex. Concerning shipments of soybean oil, increases are at 66% in one month and 44.65% in one year.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
