Cepea, June 17, 2025 – Good weather conditions during the development of the second corn crop in Brazil reinforce expectations of high production in 2024/25. In mid-June, Conab adjusted positively estimates for the harvesting. As a result, corn quotations continued to move down in the first fortnight of June.
Conab released a report on June 12 indicating that the 2024/25 output in Brazil is likely to total 128.25 million tons, 1.37 million tons more than the projection released in May. The increase is related to the higher production in the second crop, which is likely to register good productivity because of the good weather.
As for the second crop, the production is forecast at 101 million tons, more than the 99.8 million tons estimated in May, 12% above the crop before and the second biggest of Conab series. The first crop may amount 24.82 million tons, upping 8% in relation to the previous. The third crop, in turn, may decrease 2.4%, projected at 2.42 million tons.
The USDA released a report in mid-June indicating that the 2025/26 production in Brazil and in Argentina may amount 131 and 53 million tons, respectively. In the US, the output is likely to reach the record of 401.84 million tons. The global production is estimated by the USDA at 1.26 billion tons, stable compared to the report released in May.
In this scenario of possible high production, prices remain moving down. The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 2.1% between May 30 and June 16, closing at BRL 67.50 per 60-kilo bag on June 16.
CROPS – The second crop harvesting reached 2% of the total in Brazil up to June 7, still below the 4% of the average over the last five years – data from Conab. The summer crop harvesting, in turn, was at 90.6% of the area up to June 7, more than the average over the last five years, of 88% – data from Conab.
EXPORTS – In May (21 producing days), Brazil shipped only 39.92 thousand tons of corn, below the 413 thousand tons sold in May/24, according to data from Secex.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
