Cepea, July 1st, 2025
CATTLE – Production costs of the cattle activity rose significantly over the last months. However, the remuneration to cattle farmers increased even more, boosting margins.
In the calf stage, the margin per arroba produced moved up 81.6% over the last 12 months (period finished in May). As for backgrounding and fattening stages, the average increase was by 98.5%.
Between May/24 and May/25, the Effective Operational Cost (EOC) upped 11.8% in the “Brazil average” for calf stage and 33.1% for backgrounding and fattening.
Despite the increase of costs, the significant rise of fed cattle and calf prices, especially between October and January, boosted margins.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for fed cattle (São Paulo State) upped 36% (in nominal terms) comparing May last year with the same month in 2025, and the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for calf (Mato Grosso do Sul state) moved up 40%. Rises are related to the low supply of animals to slaughter and to the increase of beef exports.
SWINE – Price averages of pork and chicken meat and beef traded in the wholesale market of the Greater São Paulo decreased in the partial of June (up to June 27). However, chicken meat values were moving down more significantly than the others. As a result, the competitiveness of pork meat dropped against chicken meat, but rose in relation to beef.
Pork prices increased at the end of the month, but drops verified in the second fortnight of May and in early June limited the advance of the average in June.
POULTRY – The downward trend for chicken meat and live animal prices, which had been verified since late May, due to restrictions to exports imposed by trade partners, because of the bird flu, was interrupted in late June. The poultry sector has been more optimistic since June 18, when Brazil regained the free of bird flu status, after following international protocols.
Despite the fact that the pace of sales slowed down at the end of the month, because of the low purchasing power of the population, prices were firm. This is related to the higher competitiveness of the chicken meat against other meats (pork and beef) and to the return of shipments to 16 countries that had suspended deals of the product from Brazil.
EXPORTS – In the first 14 days of June, the daily average of shipments of in natura chicken meat is at 16 thousand tons, according to data from Secex. This volume is 7.4% smaller than that in May and 22% below the amount registered in June/24. Still, comparing the daily average of sales in the week of June 9 with June 16, there is a 5% increase, which indicates that exports are regaining pace.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
