Cepea, July 1st, 2025 – The 2024/25 cotton harvesting (which can hit a record) is starting to gain pace in Brazil. Therefore, sellers are more willing to sell off remaining batches from the 2023/24 season. In this scenario, purchasers are offering low values to buy new batches, and quotations, in turn, are moving down in Brazil. The downward trend was reinforced by international price decreases.
On June 30, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (payment in 8 days) closed at BRL 4.1456 per pound, for a decrease of 6.16% compared to that on May 30.
Conab says that 4% of the area had been harvested up to June 21.
EXPORTS – Data from Secex indicate that 100 thousand tons of cotton were shipped in June (14 producing days), 48% below the volume registered in May/25 (192.2 thousand tons) and 37.7% less than in June/24 (160.4 thousand tons). The daily average was at 7.14 thousand tons in June, against 8.02 thousand tons one year ago (-11%).
2024/25 CROP – Conab released a report on June 12 indicating that the 2024/25 production in Brazil may increase 0.2% compared to the estimate released in May/25 and can move up 5.7% in relation to the 2023/24 season, at 3.913 million tons. The area is likely to be at 2.082 million hectares, downing 0.1% in one month, but upping 7.1% compared to the past crop. The productivity is projected to drop 1.2% against the 23/24 season, at 1,880 kilos per hectare, but moving up 0.31% compared to the report released in May.
GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND – The USDA released estimates on June 12 indicating that the world 2025/26 cotton season is expected to reach 25.472 million tons, downing 0.7% against the month before and 2.4% in relation to 2024/25. As for Brazil, the USDA continues to indicate a production close to 4 million tons, moving up 7.4% compared to the previous crop.
The world consumption, in turn, is projected at 25.638 million tons, 1% more than the season before, but 0.3% less than in the report released in May. As a result, the consumption may be only 0.65% above the supply in 2025/26.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
