Cepea, July 1st, 2025 – Average prices of the white crystal sugar continue to move down in the spot market of São Paulo state. On June 27, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for sugar (Icumsa 130-180) closed at the level of BRL 116.00 per 50-kg bag, which had not been verified since late July 2021 (in nominal terms).
The decrease is related to the low demand for prompt-delivery and to international price drops. Between May 30 and June 30, the Index moved down 12.71%, averaging BRL 116.61/bag on June30.
Despite decreases, values in the domestic market continue more advantageous than international quotations. From June 23-27, Cepea calculations show that the weekly average of the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for white crystal sugar closed at BRL 120.25 per 50-kilo bag, while the average of the July/25 contract at ICE Futures closed at 111.85 BRL per bag. Thus, sales in the spot market of SP remunerated 7.51% more than exports did. This figure considered weekly averages at USD 62.66 per ton of freight and charges, USD 90.60 per ton for quality premium and dollar at BRL 5.5128.
Abroad, demerara sugar prices continue to drop at ICE Futures due to the forecast of a surplus in global supply in the 2025/26 season. According to Rabobank, the world surplus is likely to reach 3.9 million tons, influenced by the productivity increase of cane crops in India and in Thailand.
As for Brazil, data from Unica indicate that 47.84 million tons of sugarcane were processed in the second fortnight of May/25, upping 5.47% compared to that verified in the same period last year.
The National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved the increase of the mandatory blend of ethanol into gasoline, changing from 27% to 30%, starting on August 1st, 2025. The increase in the demand for ethanol is expected to direct more sugarcane to produce the biofuel, which, in turn, can boost sugar quotations.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
