Cepea, July 1st, 2025 – Cepea surveys show that the price of the milk produced in May closed at BRL 2.6431/liter on the “Brazil Average”, downing 3.9% compared to that in April/25 and 7.4% against that in May/24, in real terms (values were deflated by the IPCA-May/25). Price drops are atypical in this period, but players were expecting them due to the higher supply and to the low demand for dairy products.
The Cepea Milk Production Index (ICAP-L) upped 1.13% from April to May in the “Brazil Average”, surpassing the increase verified in previous years. This scenario is related to several aspects, such as producers’ investments, due to good margins verified in the last semester.
According to Cepea research, after four consecutive increases, the Effective Operational Cost (EOC) downed 0.72% in May in the “Brazil Average”, especially because of the price drop of inputs related to animal feeding. This scenario favors investments on the activity.
On one hand, prices have been moving down due to the supply increase. On the other, the demand for dairy products has not moved up at the same intensity in order to sustain quotations. Therefore, the industry had difficulties to flow inventories and face the pressure of distribution channels in May. A Cepea research performed with the support from the OCB (Organization of Brazilian Cooperatives) indicate price drops for UHT milk, mozzarella cheese and milk powder traded in the wholesale market of São Paulo.
IMPORTS – Data from Secex indicate that purchases rose 8.59% between April and May. In one year, the increase is by 18%.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
