Cepea, August 6, 2025 – After a brief upward trend in mid-July, corn prices moved down again at the end of the month. The decrease is related to the fact that purchasers were unwilling to trade, expecting more price drops due to the progress of the second crop harvesting. Moreover, exports are smaller compared to July 2024.
Purchasers in Brazil were focused on the progress of the harvesting. In spite of the delay compared to last year, some areas in Mato Grosso and Goiás have presented high productivity, increasing the supply.
EXPORTS – From February to the fourth week of July, shipments totaled 4.3 million tons, against 7 million tons sold in the same period of 2024 and below the 34 million projected by Conab by January/26. In July alone (19 producing days), Brazil exported only 1.52 million tons, below the 3.5 million tons verified in July/24 – data from Secex.
Higher amounts are usually shipped in the second semester. However, in order to get to the official estimate, 5 million tons per month need to be exported, which has not been registered so far this year. Due to the decrease of shipments and the record output in Brazil, the domestic supply is likely to increase, pressing down values in the domestic market. Conab estimates inventories at 8.41 million tons by the end of the season, in January/26.
In the United States, prices are moving down due to the expectation of a record production. According to the USDA, the output is projected at 398.92 million tons in 2025/26.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index dropped 5.19% from June 30 to July 31, closing at BRL 63.54 per 60-kilo bag on July 31.
CROPS – The second crop harvesting reached 66.1% in Brazil up to late July, below that verified in the same period last year (70.1%) – data from Conab.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
