Cepea, April 16, 2025 – Soy prices upped in early April in the domestic market, influenced by the high demand from abroad. In Brazil, the dollar valuation against Real intensified increases. The US dollar rose 3.26% against Real between March 31 and April 15, closing at BRL 5.892 on April 15.
However, the dollar oscillation limited the pace of trades in the spot market, since it led players to be away from closing deals, expecting better opportunities.
Moreover, on April 9, the US government suspended “reciprocal” tariffs of several countries, including Brazil, for 90 days, except China. On one hand, this scenario brought a certain relief for the market, increasing international trades, but, on the other, it boosted the trade war with China, which, in turn, is likely to intensify import from other countries, like Brazil. China is the major destination for the Brazilian soy. The country accounts for more than 70% of national shipments since 2011.
As a result, Brazilian soybean exports continue projected at a record volume in the 2024/25 season, at 105.8 million tons (from Oct/24 to Sept/25) by the USDA, and at 105.85 million tons (from January to December/25) by Conab.
According to data from Secex, Brazil shipped 22.17 million tons of soybeans in the first quarter of 2025, a record for the period.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) increased 2.35% from March 31 to April 15, to close at BRL 135.30 per 60-kg bag on April 15. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) rose 3.28% in the same comparison, closing at BRL 131.48 per 60-kg bag.
Price rises were limited by projections of a record crop in Brazil, estimated at 169 million tons by the USDA and by 167.8 million tons by Conab. Conab also indicated that the soy harvesting reached 85.3% of the area in Brazil.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
