Sector is focused on impacts of Trump’s tariffs

CATTLE

Cepea, April 16, 2025 – All sectors of the global economy are focused on adjusting their plans because of the turbulence caused by Trump’s tariffs. Losses already registered in stock exchange markets around the globe indicate an economic slowdown.

In Brazil, high dollar values favor exports, and tariffs imposed by the US government also tend to reinforce the demand for agriculture and livestock products from Brazil. Although countries that import beef have negative impacts on their economies, it is possible that the international demand for the Brazilian beef continues at good levels.

On the other hand, tariffs from the US to Brazil and the turbulence in the economy of other countries may impact (direct or indirectly) several sectors in Brazil. It tends to decrease investments, to cause unemployment and to reduce the income for the consumption of beef and other goods. Moreover, high dollar quotations boosts livestock production costs.

From now on, exports to the United States will have an additional tariff of 10%, besides the current 26%, and impacts are still unclear. As for China, major purchaser of the Brazilian beef, there are news reporting that the product has been traded with price adjustments and perspectives indicate that sales are likely to continue firm.

SWINE – Quotations for both live swine and pork meat dropped in March. However, monthly price averages were more than 20% above those verified in March 2024 in some regions surveyed by Cepea.

In the SP-5 region (Bragança Paulista, Campinas, Piracicaba, São Paulo and Sorocaba), live pig quotations dropped 3.3% from February to March, averaging BRL 8.56/kg last month. Comparing to March last year, on the other hand, values moved up 17.9%, in real terms (IGP-DI March/25). In the west of Santa Catarina state, the increase compared to March/24 is at 24.3%, and values of the animal averaged BRL 8.34/kg last month.

Values of the special pork carcass traded in the wholesale market of the Greater São Paulo averaged BRL 12.60/kg in March, 4.8% down against that in February, but upping 25.5% compared to March last year, in real terms (IPCA February/25).

POULTRY – The demand increase, which is typical at the beginning of the month, boosted chicken meat quotations in most part of regions surveyed by Cepea in the first fortnight of April.

The average price for chicken meat (whole, frozen) in the wholesale market of the Greater São Paulo upped 6.8% from March 31 to April 15, to close at BRL 8.86/kg on April 15. As for the chilled product, the increase is by 6.9% in the same period and in the same region, at BRL 8.89/kg.

(Cepea-Brazil)