Cepea, April 16, 2025 – In spite of the wheat price rise in the wholesale market in this partial of 2025, values paid to farmers upped less significantly. This scenario may limit the attractiveness of the wheat planting this year – Conab already estimated a smaller area compared to 2024. As a result, a production increase will depend on the productivity, which is estimated to compensate the area drop and to result in higher supply in 2025.
According to data from Conab, the 2025 planting has started in Goiás and in Minas Gerais. Activities are likely to start only in May/June in major producing states, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul.
Data from Conab indicate a decrease of 9.3% of the wheat area in 2025, to 2.77 million hectares. In Southern Brazil, the reduction is likely to be at 10.9%, especially influenced by the sharp decrease of 20.5% in the area in Paraná.
The average productivity is likely to total 3.06 tons per hectare, 18.5% more than in 2024, which would result in a production of 8.47 million tons (+7.4% compared to the last year). Adding the output to initial stocks (904 thousand tons) and to imports (5.6 million tons), the domestic availability is estimated at 14.98 million tons, only 1.2% more than in 2024. From this amount, Conab estimates a domestic consumption at 11.85 million tons, exports at 2 million tons and ending stocks at 1.12 million tons by July/26.
The USDA says that the global output is likely to amount 796.85 million tons. The world consumption is projected at 805.2 million tons, 0.2% less than that forecast in the previous report, but upping 0.9% compared to the last season.
According to data from Cepea, between April 4 and 11, the prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) increased 0.23% in Rio Grande do Sul and 2% in Santa Catarina, and remained stable in Paraná. In the wholesale market (deals between processors), values upped 1% in Paraná, 0.33% in Santa Catarina and 0.41% in São Paulo, but downed only 0.1% in Rio Grande do Sul.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
