Cepea, May 19, 2025 – Projections of high corn production in Brazil and in the world have pressed down domestic prices. In Brazil, good weather conditions in many second crop producing areas sustain the expectation of good productivity, while the good pace of sowing activities and favorable weather conditions in the United States boost perspectives about the output.
In this scenario, some purchasers in Brazil prefer to be away from closing deals and expect new price drops to replenish inventories. Sellers, in turn, try to trade remaining batches of the 2023/24 crop and from the current summer crop (2024/25).
PRICES – The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) dropped 8.81% between April 30 and May 15, closing at BRL 73.07 per 60-kilo bag on May 15. The Index is at the lowest level since January, in nominal terms.
ESTIMATES – Conab released a report in mid-May indicating that the 2024/25 second crop is expected to reach 99.8 million tons, 10.8% more than in the previous season and 2% above that projected in April.
As for the summer crop, it is likely to total 24.68 million tons, upping 7.5% compared to the season before. The third crop is estimated to decrease 3.8%, at 2.38 million tons. The total production is forecast by Conab at 126.87 million tons, 9.9% more than in the previous crop.
Conab expects the volume allocated to the domestic consumption to hit 89.3 million tons, +5.3% compared to that in the year before.
The USDA indicated that the 2025/26 world season is likely to total 1.26 billion tons, while the consumption is expected at 1.27 billion tons, upping 4% and 2%, respectively, in relation to the 2024/25 crop.
CROPS – The summer crop harvesting has finished in São Paulo, Santa Catarina and in Paraná. Conab indicates that activities hit 77.6% of the national area up to May 10. Concerning the second crop, most crops are at good conditions.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
