Cepea, May 19, 2025
CATTLE – The Brazilian beef output continues to increase; however, the demand from abroad is even higher.
Data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) indicate that the production rose 2.73% in the first quarter of this year compared to the same period in 2024. Beef shipments, in turn, increased almost 12% in the same period – data from Secex.
IBGE says that Brazil produced 64.925 thousand tons more in the first quarter than in the same period of 2024. International sales, in turn, increased 70.972 thousand tons.
Considering imports, which rose 3.9%, Cepea calculates that the domestic beef availability was 1.23% smaller in the first quarter of this year in relation to the same period in 2024.
Prices of both fed cattle and beef had already indicated this scenario. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index for fed cattle (São Paulo State) was 22% higher, in real terms (values were deflated by the IGP-DI), than in the first quarter last year. In the same comparison, beef carcass values rose 23.8% wholesale market of the Greater São Paulo.
SWINE – Sales of pork meat to the international market continue registering a good performance this year. Exports of in natura and processed meat hit a record in April and is the third highest of the Secex series (since 1997). Moreover, the revenue obtained last month is the second highest of Secex series.
Data from Secex indicate that 127.8 thousand tons of swine products were shipped in April, upping 11.4% compared to March/25 and 14.5% in relation to April/24. The revenue rose 9.3% from March to April, totaling BRL 1.73 billion last month. Comparing to April last year, the increase surpassed 40%.
POULTRY – Price averages of both chicken and pork meat were moving up in the partial of May compared to April, due to the firm demand in the beginning of the month, but beef quotations were dropping. As a result, chicken meat gained competitiveness against pork, but lost it against beef.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
