Cepea, May 19, 2025 – Cotton prices in Brazil continue higher than the export parity, a scenario that has been observed since the beginning of this year (considering monthly price averages). Despite recent drops in the domestic market, quotations are still at high levels and above values from abroad.
Between April 30 and May 15, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index (payment in 8 days) dropped 1.85%, to close at BRL 4.3060 per pound on May 15. It is worth noting that, on May 12, the Index hit the highest level since April 11, 2023. The average in May (up to May 15) is 13.2% above the parity, the highest monthly advantage since February/23 (16.2%).
2023/24 ending stocks are limited and sellers are firm regarding quotations, a scenario that justified price rises in some moments of the month.
SHIPMENTS – Cotton exports totaled 239.1 thousand tons in April, similar to the volume registered in March/25 (239.06 thousand tons) and the second highest for the month – data from Secex.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND – According to the USDA, the 2025/26 world cotton production is likely to hit 25.65 million tons, downing 2.7% compared to the 2024/25 season. The estimate for Brazil is at 4 million tons, a new record.
The global consumption, in turn, is projected at 25.708 million tons, 1.2% more than in the previous crop. As a result, the consumption may be 0.23% above the supply in 2025/26.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
