Cepea, June 17, 2025 – Wheat prices continue to move down in the domestic market. The decrease comes from the devaluation of international quotations and the dollar, the progress of sowing activities in Brazil, and from the low demand.
Many purchasers are well supplied, while others are prioritizing imported wheat. Producers, in turn, are focused on crop activities. In this context, liquidity remains low in the domestic market.
According to data from Cepea, between June 6 and 13, in the wholesale market (deals between processors), values decreased 2.3% in Rio Grande do Sul, 2% in São Paulo, 1.14% in Santa Catarina and 0.6% in Paraná. The prices paid to wheat farmers (over-the-counter market) remained almost stable in Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná and upped 0.2% in Santa Catarina.
CROPS – Conab says that the area in Brazil may reach 2.67 million hectares, downing 1% and 12.6%, respectively, compared to the previous report (May) and to the season before (2024). The production is likely to reach 8.192 million tons, 3.8% more than in 2024; the productivity may increase 18.9% in the same comparison, at 3.06 tons per hectare. Conab also indicates that sowing activities reached 42% of the area up to June 7.
IMPORTS – Brazilian wheat imports continue to grow in 2025. Up to May, the total is at 3.092 million tons, the highest volume since 2001 (3.23 million tons), according to data from Secex. As a result, in 12 months, imports amounted almost 7 million tons, a volume that had not been verified for six years.
Imports were 11.9% higher in the first five months of this year compared to the same period last year, according to Secex. However, comparing June/24 and May/25, the increase is by 34.5%.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
