Cepea, September 16, 2024 – The lack of rainfall in major producing areas in Brazil has concerned soybean producers in mid-September, since this scenario may delay 2024/25 planting activities. As a result, sellers have restricted the volume offered in the spot market in Brazil, while both domestic and international consumers are competing for new batches. As the demand has been surpassing the supply, both export premiums and domestic prices increased in early September.
From August 29 to September 13, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Paranaguá) rose 1.84%, closing at BRL 140.67 per 60-kg bag on Sept. 13. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) moved up 1.3% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 136.15 per 60-kg bag.
However, the upward trend for soybean prices was interrupted in the United States and in Brazil in the middle of September, due to expectations of the higher world supply. The 2024/25 crop is about to begin in the Northern Hemisphere; however, it is necessary to wait for the planting, the development and the harvesting in South America.
According to data released by the USDA on September 12, the global 2024/25 soybean supply is estimated at the record of 429.2 million tons, 8.73% more than in 2023/24. The production in the US is forecast at the record of 124.8 million tons, 10% higher than the crop before. The increase is linked to favorable weather conditions for crops, which can register the highest productivity in history, 3.57 tons per hectare.
BRAZIL – The USDA indicates that the soybean planting area in Brazil may increase for the 18th consecutive crop, estimated at 47.3 million hectares in 2024/25, 3.3% more than the previous and a record. Thus, the soybean production in Brazil would change from 153 million tons in 2023/24 to 169 million tons in the 2024/25 season.
EXPORTS – Secex data indicate that 8.04 million tons of soybean were shipped in August, 28.5% less than in July/24, moving down 4% compared to the volume observed in August/23 and the lowest monthly volume since February this year. However, in the partial of 2024 (from January to August), soybean exports totaled 83.44 million tons, upping 3.21% in relation to the same period of 2023 and a record.
(Cepea-Brazil)
