Cepea, September 16, 2024 – Producers were away from closing trades in the spot market and for future delivery in mid-September, since they were focused on the warm and dry weather and on firm demand in both the international and domestic markets. As a result, purchasers claim to have difficulties to replenish inventories, and corn prices moved up.
The ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index (Campinas, SP) rose 3.55% between August 30 and September 13, closing at BRL 62.74 per 60-kilo bag on Sept. 13.
Not even the reports released by Conab and by the USDA indicating high production in Brazil and in the world were enough to limit price rises in the domestic market. Producers expect new increases, based on the impacts of the weather on summer crops and on the possible delay of the 2024/24 second season.
Conab released a report about the 2023/24 season in mid-September, saying that the Brazilian production is likely to amount 115.72 million tons, 0.06% more than that projected in the month before, but decreasing 12% compared to the 2022/23 crop.
The domestic availability (initial stocks + production + imports) is estimated by Conab at 125.29 million tons. As the domestic consumption is estimated at 84.24 million tons, the domestic surplus is calculated at 41 million tons in the 2023/24 season. From this total, 36 million tons are forecast to be shipped. In case international sales hit this amount, only 5 million tons would remain by late January/25, roughly 30% smaller than the crop before.
In global terms, for the 2024/25 season, the USDA estimates production of 1.21 billion tons, 0.5% smaller than the 2023/24 crop, due to the low volume especially from Ukraine and Russia. The consumption is estimated at 1.21 billion tons, reducing stocks to 308.34 million tons.
In the first five producing days of September, Brazil shipped 1.55 million tons of corn, with a daily pace at 311.6 thousand tons. In case this pace continues up to the end of the month, Brazilian exports are likely to surpass 6 million tons. Anec indicates that shipments may reach 6.47 million tons in September.
CROPS – According to Conab, the 2023/24 second crop harvesting in Brazil reached 99.7% of the area until Sept. 8. Only Mato Grosso do Sul needs to finish activities. As for the summer crop, 29% of the area had been planted up to Sept. 9 in Paraná, an advance of 11 percentage points in one week, but still with a delay of 13 p.p. compared to that observed in the last season – data from Seab/Deral.
(Cepea-Brazil)
