Cepea, July 16, 2025 – The favorable weather for crops in the United States and high inventories in Brazil and in Argentina pressed down values in the international market in mid-July. The decrease was also attributed to the scenario of tariffs imposed by the US government on many countries, including Brazil.
The trade war between the United States and countries that import grains and the dollar valuation against Real tend to redirect purchasers of the soybean from the US to Brazil. This scenario, in turn, interrupted the downward trend that has been observed in the domestic market up to the beginning of the month.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paranaguá) rose 1% from June 30 to July 15, closing at BRL 136.40 per 60-kg bag on July 15. The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (Paraná) increased 0.77% in the same comparison, to close at BRL 130.14 per 60-kg bag.
SOYBEAN EXPORTS – Brazil shipped 13.42 million tons of soybeans in June this year, 4.3% less than in the month before and 4% smaller compared to that verified in June/24, according to data from Secex. Still, in the first semester of this year, exports totaled 64.94 million tons, a record.
SOYBEAN MEAL EXPORTS – The amount in June was at 1.94 million tons, downing 14.7% and 3.8% comparing to the month before and to June last year, respectively – data from Secex. In the first semester of 2025, shipments hit the record of 11.51 million tons.
SOYBEAN OIL EXPORTS – Shipments totaled 166.17 thousand tons last month, moving up 17.4% against May and 32% compared to the same month last year. Brazil exported 779.09 thousand tons of soybean oil in the first semester of this year, for an increase of 38.15% in relation to the period from January to June last year.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND – Conab indicates that Brazil harvested the record of 169.48 million tons in the 2024/25 season. The soybean meal output is estimated at the record of 43.78 million tons. As for soy oil, the production is estimated at 11.37 million tons.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
