Cepea, July 16, 2025 – While cotton quotations moved up in the international market in mid-July, due to the firm demand for the US product, in Brazil, prices decreased, influenced by the harvesting of a possible record crop.
Although quotations in BR are still higher than those abroad, the recent scenario has reduced the domestic advantage over prices in the international market.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (payment in 8 days) moved down 0.32% between June 30 and July 15, closing at BRL 4.1324 per pound on July 15.
2024/25 CROP – Conab released a report on July 10 indicating that the 2024/25 cotton output may total 3.938 million tons, 0.65% more compared to data released in June and 6.4% above that verified in the 2023/24 crop. The area is estimated at 2.084 million hectares, +0.11% and +7.2% in the same comparisons. The productivity is likely to decrease 0.7% against the crop before, at 1,890 kilos per hectare, but there has been a 0.53% increase compared to the report released in June.
According to data from Conab, 13.6% of the area had been harvested up to July 12, while the average over the last five years is at 19.2%.
GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND – According to data from the USDA released on July 11, the 2025/26 global production is estimated at 25.783 million tons, upping 1.2% compared to the month before, but downing 1.2% against the 2024/25 season. The consumption is projected at 25.718 million tons, increases of 1.2% and 0.3% in the same comparisons. The global consumption may be only 0.3% smaller than the supply in the 2025/26 season.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
