Cepea, July 16, 2025 – The pace of trades involving hydrous ethanol was slow in the spot market of São Paulo state in mid-July, and the volume traded remained practically stable compared to that verified at the beginning of the month, when the total was the smallest of the current season (2025/26).
Purchasers continued unwilling to close new deals, since they claimed to have closed trades before. The period of school holidays reinforced the low demand, since it reduces the vehicle circulation. As for the supply, some sellers ended up accepting lower values, while others preferred to be away from closing deals. As a result, prices dropped.
Between July 7 and 11, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for hydrous ethanol closed at BRL 2.5521/liter (net of ICMS and PIS/Cofins), downing 2.05% compared to that in the previous period. As for the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for anhydrous closed at BRL 2.9598/liter, net of taxes (PIS/Cofins), for a decrease of 1.33% in the same comparison.
In this scenario, the performance of the 2025/26 crop still bring uncertainties for market players. The combination of low productivity so far, frosts in some producing regions in June, the fact that the production mix is higher for sugar and the low performance of fuel sales, among other aspects, have been indicated as challenging by agents.
As for the prices of the products in the sugar-energy sector in São Paulo, from July 7-11, anhydrous prices were 11.1% above quotations for hydrous ethanol, according to Cepea calculations. Sugar values were 35.4% higher than the quotations for hydrous ethanol and 21.8% above anhydrous ethanol prices.
The National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) approved the increase of the mandatory blend of anhydrous ethanol into gasoline from 27% to 30% (E30), starting on August 1st, 2025.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
