Cepea, August 6, 2025 – Wheat prices moved down in July for the third consecutive month; however, decreases were not significant. Prices dropped due to the lower import parity, which continues at low levels because of international values and of dollar quotations. The liquidity in the domestic market remained low in July, since wheat mills preferred the imported product, while sellers were focused on the end of sowing activities and on the development of crops.
Data released by Seab/Deral in late July indicate that the area is at 832.8 thousand hectares in Paraná, downing 27% compared to the season before. The productivity is expected to surpass by 52% that in 2024, to 3.14 tons per hectare, which would result in a production of 2.61 million tons, 13% more than in the previous crop.
As for Rio Grande do Sul, the 10% area decrease (to 1.2 million hectares) would not be compensated by productivity (+7.8%, to 3 tons per hectare), which would keep the supply smaller than in last year, at 3.59 million tons, according to Emater/RS.
In July/25, the monthly average of wheat prices in Paraná was BRL 1,476.95 per ton, moving down 2.2% against June/25 and 7.2% in relation to that in July/24, in real terms (IGP-DI). In Rio Grande do Sul, the average was BRL 1,317.83/ton, 2.5% down in one month and -12.8% in one year. In São Paulo, prices averaged BRL 1.499.43/ton, -2% and -8.9% in the same comparisons. As for Santa Catarina, the average was BRL 1,441.48/ton in August, decreasing 1.9% compared to June and 7.4% against that in the same month last year.
IMPORTS – Up to the fourth week of July (19 producing days), Brazil imported 512.02 thousand tons, 21% less than that registered in July/2024 (644.61 thousand tons).
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
