Cepea, August 6, 2025 – The 2024/25 cotton crop is close to the end, with record exports. According to data from Secex, from August/24 to the fourth week of July/25, Brazil shipped 2.82 million tons, 5% more than in the crop before, which had registered the record so far, 2.68 million tons. Between August/24 and June/25 (most recent data), major destinations of the national product were: Vietnam (accounting for 19% of the total), Pakistan (18%), China (16%), Bangladesh (15%), Turkey (12%), Indonesia (6%) and India (5%). It is worth noting that there has been a diversification of major destinations.
From January to the partial of July this year, Brazil exported 1.61 million tons, 2.92% more than that registered in the same period last year.
In 19 days of July, Brazil sold 111.7 thousand tons of cotton to the international market, 15.9% less than in June/25 (132.8 thousand tons), but the second highest for the month, below that verified in July/24 (167.2 thousand tons), according to data from Secex.
DOMESTIC MARKET – Cotton prices decreased more significantly in late July/early August, due to the progress of the harvesting, the high domestic surplus and the low demand. Moreover, international cotton values were also moving down, which reinforced drops in Brazil, as this context reduces the export parity.
The CEPEA/ESALQ Index (payment in 8 days) dropped 1.69% between and July 28 and August 4, closing at BRL 4.0254 per pound on August 4, the lowest value since December 4, 2024, in nominal terms (BRL 4.0177/pound). The average in July, of BRL 4.1061/pound, is 4.03% below that in June/25 and 2% smaller compared to that verified in July/24, in real terms. The monthly average is the lowest since November/24 (BRL 3.9607/pound).
ICAC – The global cotton area is likely to reach 31.3 million hectares in the 2025/26 season, with average productivity at 827 kilos per hectare. Thus, the world production may total 25.912 million tons, 1.55% more than in the crop before. The consumption is expected at 25.564 million tons, upping 0.26% compared to that in the 2024/25 season, but 1.34% smaller than supply.
(Cepea-Brazil)
Centro de Estudos Avançados em Economia Aplicada – CEPEA-Esalq/USP
